Abstract:

In order to reduce the perturbation bounds of the solution of discrete grey forecasting model, increase the stability of the solution of the model, and make full use of new information of the system, a fractional reverse accumulative discrete grey model is put forward.Its calculation formula is deduced and its perturbation bounds are calculated.The specific calculation formula is given by mathematical deduction, and the perturbation bounds are calculated.The superiority of the fractional order reverse accumulative discrete grey model is proved by comparing the perturbation bounds of it with the firstorder reverse accumulative discrete grey model.Finally, it is applied in storage reliability prediction of a certain type of weapon system, and the calculation result is better than the traditional grey prediction model.The prediction accuracy has improved dramatically.〖JP2〗The proposed model expands the scope of the theoretical research and practical application of grey forecasting model.