Abstract:

To improve the precision of reliability assessment for the complex system, the stochastic features on environment, function, status and evolvement of the complex system are studied, and a synthetic reliability assessment method for the complex system based on dynamic population statistics is proposed. According to the theory of dynamic population statistics, the environment factor, inheritance factor and growth factor are introduced. Then, with these factors, the test data from various environment conditions, various develop phases, various structures and various objects are used to assess the reliability of the complex system. With the method, the various test data are used synthetically to enlarge the sample size and increase the information for reliability assessment. Thus, the precision of reliability assessment is improved. The present method is used to assess the reliability of the tactical weapon system. The result shows that the method is reasonable, and it is convenient for engineering application.