基于MCMC的导弹主动段突防仿真及灵敏度分析

Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics ›› 2010, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (4): 803-806.

基于MCMC的导弹主动段突防仿真及灵敏度分析

齐照辉, 刘雪梅, 梁伟

（航天飞行器生存技术与效能评估实验室, 北京 100085）

出版日期:2010-04-23 发布日期:2010-01-03

Survival simulation and sensitivity analysis of ballistic missile in boost phase based on MCMC

QI Zhao-hui, LIU Xue-mei, LIANG Wei

(The Inst. of Effectiveness Evaluation of Flying Vehicle, Beijing 100085, China)

Online:2010-04-23 Published:2010-01-03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

能否对抗预警卫星的早期预警探测是弹道导弹主动段突防的关键。结合导弹主动段飞行仿真、主动段红外特性计算和预警卫星红外探测仿真，基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛（Markov chain Monte Carlo, MCMC）方法构建了导弹主动段突防仿真模型，并建立了导弹主动突防参数灵敏度分析的响应面近似函数模型。通过导弹主动段突防仿真与参数分析算例，定量给出了导弹主动段性能参数对其突防能力的影响，验证了方法的有效性。

Abstract:

The anti-detection ability of ballistic missile confronted with warning satellite is critical to its survivability in boost phase. Combined the boost movement model and radiant intensity model of ballistic missile, along with infrared detection model of warning satellite, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of boost-phase survivability of ballistic missile is established. In addition, the response-surface approximate function is established to analyze the uncertain influence parameters in boost phase. A calculation case is provided, some uncertain parameters are analyzed, and the results show that the algorithm can obtain the survivability of ballistic missile in boost phase.

齐照辉, 刘雪梅, 梁伟 . 基于MCMC的导弹主动段突防仿真及灵敏度分析[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2010, 32(4): 803-806.

QI Zhao-hui, LIU Xue-mei, LIANG Wei. Survival simulation and sensitivity analysis of ballistic missile in boost phase based on MCMC[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2010, 32(4): 803-806.