基于ADC法的防空导弹武器系统效能建模

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.09.16

系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (9): 2003-2012.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.09.16

基于ADC法的防空导弹武器系统效能建模

赵曰强^1,²(), 安实¹(), 麦强¹(), 许庆彦³(), 郭亚男¹()

1. 哈尔滨工业大学管理学院, 黑龙江哈尔滨 150001
2. 中国航天科工防御技术研究院, 北京 100854
3. 清华大学材料学院, 北京 100084

收稿日期:2019-11-04 出版日期:2020-08-26 发布日期:2020-08-26
作者简介:赵曰强 (1970-),男,研究员,博士,主要研究方向为航天系统总体、系统工程管理。E-mail:zhyqng@hotmail.com|安实(1968-),男,教授,博士研究生导师,博士,主要研究方向为系统优化。E-mail:anshi@hit.edu.cn|麦强 (1977-),男,副教授,博士研究生导师,博士,主要研究方向为航天系统工程。E-mail:maiqianghit2003@126.com|许庆彦 (1971-),男,教授，博士研究生导师,博士,主要研究方向为材料建模与仿真。E-mail:scjxqy@tsinghua.edu.cn|郭亚男 (1994-),女,博士研究生,主要研究方向为系统工程理论与优化。E-mail:13804551661@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71571057);国家自然科学基金应急管理项目(71841029);国家自然科学基金应急管理项目(71841030)

Effectiveness modeling of air defense missile weapon system based on ADC method

Yueqiang ZHAO^1,²(), Shi AN¹(), Qiang MAI¹(), Qingyan XU³(), Yanan GUO¹()

1. School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China
2. Defense Technology Academy of China Aerospace Science & Industry Corporation, Beijing 100854, China
3. School of Materials Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Received:2019-11-04 Online:2020-08-26 Published:2020-08-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于ADC(availability dependability capability)法对防空导弹武器系统效能进行建模。针对防空导弹武器系统复杂的特点,构建了系统的多状态及状态转移的路径,充分体现了武器系统的可靠性水平,建立了可用性和可信度模型。克服了ADC法的不足,对系统能力向量进行拓展,考虑了指控能力、抗干扰能力、生存能力等综合性指标,突破单指标效能评估的局限性。采用多种方法组合,对量纲类指标采用标度法进行计算,对定量概率指标采用参数法进行建模,对定性概率指标采用标度法结合德尔菲法进行量化。通过算例的验证表明了该模型适用、准确。

关键词: 防空导弹, ADC法, 系统效能, 评估建模

Abstract:

The effectiveness model of air defense missile weapon system based on availability dependability capability (ADC) method is established. According to the complex characteristics of air defense missile weapon system, the muti-state and state transition path of the system is constructed, fully reflecting the reliability level of the weapon system, and the model of availability and dependability is established. The deficiency of ADC method is overcomed, the ability vector of the system is expanded, the comprehensive indexes such as command and control ability, anti-jamming ability and survivability are in consicleration, and the limitation of single index effectiveness evaluation is broken. Various methods are adopt in the scale method to calculate the dimension index, the parameter method is used to model the quantitative probability index, and the scale method combined with Delphi method is used to quantify the qualitative probability index. The model is proved to be accurate and applicable by a numerical example.

Key words: air defense missile, availability dependability capability (ADC) method, system effectiveness, evaluation modeling

中图分类号:

赵曰强, 安实, 麦强, 许庆彦, 郭亚男. 基于ADC法的防空导弹武器系统效能建模[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2020, 42(9): 2003-2012.

Yueqiang ZHAO, Shi AN, Qiang MAI, Qingyan XU, Yanan GUO. Effectiveness modeling of air defense missile weapon system based on ADC method[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(9): 2003-2012.

图/表 7

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参数	取值
R/km	45
R_L/m	150
T	1
M	6
t_r/s	60
m/kg	2 450
m_z/kg	195
v_m/Ma	3.5
探测跟踪	最大跟踪距离70 km,能制导3枚导弹攻击一个目标
杀伤概率	单发70%
抗干扰能力	无线电指令制导,增加抛物面照射天线
指控能力	显示车指挥6辆发射车
生存能力	可贮存液体发动机,结构复杂,体积庞大,机动能力差
可靠性	MTBF Z车120 h, L车55 h, F车50 h,导弹可靠度0.9;MTTR 1 h

状态	状态含义说明
1	Z、L、F、D均正常,系统正常、能作战
2	Z+L正常，F+D中5个正常、1个故障,系统能作战
3	Z+L正常，F+D中4个正常、2个故障,系统能作战
4	Z+L正常，F+D中3个正常、3个故障,系统能作战
5	Z+L正常，F+D中2个正常、4个故障,系统能作战
6	Z+L正常，F+D中1个正常、5个故障,系统能作战
7	Z+L故障或Z+L正常6个F+D都故障,系统故障、不能作战

参考指标	状态1	状态2	状态3	状态4	状态5	状态6	状态7	w_i
R/km	45	45	45	45	45	45	0	-
R_L/m	150	150	150	150	150	150	0	-
T/个	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	-
M/个	6	5	4	3	2	1	0	-
t_r/s	60	60	60	60	60	60	0	-
D_1j	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0	0.34
D_2j	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0	0.13
D_3j	0.3	0.25	0.2	0.15	0.1	0.05	0	0.23
D_4j	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0	0.15
D_5j	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.15	0	0.15
P_Dj	0.317 5	0.306	0.294 5	0.283	0.271 5	0.26	0	-

参数指标	状态1	状态2	状态3	状态4	状态5	状态6	状态7
P_G1j	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0
P_G2j	0.973	0.973	0.973	0.973	0.91	0.7	0
P_G3j	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0
P_G4j	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0
P_G5j	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0
P_Gj	0.489	0.489	0.489	0.489	0.483	0.458	0

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基于ADC法的防空导弹武器系统效能建模

Effectiveness modeling of air defense missile weapon system based on ADC method

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