系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 444-452.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2019.02.30

• 可靠性 • 上一篇    下一篇

半马尔可夫跃迁历程下装备复杂系统多状态可靠性分析与评估

史跃东1, 金家善1, 徐一帆2   

  1. 1. 海军工程大学舰船与海洋学院, 湖北 武汉 430033;
    2. 海军工程大学管理工程与装备经济系, 湖北 武汉 430033
  • 出版日期:2019-01-25 发布日期:2019-01-25

Multistate reliability analysis and assessment for complex technical system under semi-Markov processes

SHI Yuedong1, JIN Jiashan1, XU Yifan2   

  1. 1. College of Naval Architecture and Marine, Naval University of Engineering,Wuhan 430033, China;   2. Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, China
  • Online:2019-01-25 Published:2019-01-25

摘要: 开展多态装备复杂系统可靠性建模、分析与评估研究,对于降低装备研制风险、优化保障系统建设、提升装备使用效能,具有重要作用。常规多态系统可靠性分析与评估体系,局限于马尔可夫指数分布状态跃迁历程假设,建模精度与解算可信度受限。突破指数分布技术瓶颈问题,构建半马尔可夫跃迁历程下多态系统可靠性建模、分析与评估体系,并针对船用机电耦合多态发电系统,实现新体系下可靠性建模、分析与评估的典型案例研究。研究表明,新体系可改善机、电类元器件强耦合复杂系统结构的多态可靠性刻画精度,有效规避系统的设计风险和使用风险;有助于实现装备配套保障系统建设的优化决策目标;对于装备系统设计人员与使用人员,具有重要的理论分析价值与工程应用价值。

Abstract: Developing the reliability modeling, analysis and assessment technology with respect to multistate complex equipment system plays an important role for reducing risk in development, optimizing construction of support system, and improving efficiency in use. The regular reliability analysis and assessment system use Markov processes to deconstruct multistate transition. However, the modeling subjects to limitations on precision and credibility. Breaking the exponential distribution hypothesis, a new system to model, analyse and assess multistate reliability using semiMarkov processes is established and applied to assess multistate reliability about the strong electromechanical coupling marine generator. Research shows that the new solution system can effectively promote assessment precision and data credibility for multistate complex technical system with the characteristic of strong electromechanical coupling, can effectively avoid risks during the design and the usage phases, and can make more rational decisions for the support system. Moreover, the results have an important value in theoretical analysis and engineering application for the designers and the users.