系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (7): 1660-1668.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2018.07.35

• 可靠性 • 上一篇    

基于贝叶斯混合概率分布融合的系统可靠性分析与预测方法

杨乐昌1, 郭艳玲2   

  1. 1. 北京科技大学机械工程学院, 北京 100083;2. 北京航空航天大学自动化科学与电气工程学院, 北京 100191
  • 出版日期:2018-06-26 发布日期:2018-06-28

Bayesian melding approach of probability distribution fusion for system reliability analysis and prediction

YANG Lechang1, GUO Yanling2   

  1. 1. School of Mechanical Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China;
    2. School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
  • Online:2018-06-26 Published:2018-06-28

摘要:

针对一般系统可靠性分析与预测方法在处理多层次信息分布不均衡(multi-level & information imbalanced, MLII)系统时的一些局限性,提出了基于贝叶斯推理与信息提取融合的系统可靠性分析方法。该方法通过引入直接先验分布、间接先验分布与融合先验分布的方式,重构了经典贝叶斯推理算法。主要创新性包括提出了基于自更新权重系数的贝叶斯混合算法,该算法可充分利用底层单元的完备数据,自下而上地补偿顶层匮乏的信息,获得较为准确的系统可靠性分析与预测结果。将该方法应用于具有MLII特点的复杂机电系统,分析结果较传统方法有更高的准确性。

Abstract:

Addressing the limitation embedded in traditional reliability analysis and prediction approaches when dealing with a multi-level & imbalanced information system, a Bayesian-based information extraction and aggregation approach is proposed. By introducing the direct prior, induced prior and combined prior, the Bayesian inference process is reformulated. Novelties include an adaptive Bayesian melding algorithm, which integrates the lower level information to compensate for higher level information inadequacy for a better reliability analysis and prediction results. A multi-level electromechanical system with imbalanced information is demonstrated for validation and benefit illustration, the results show an improved accuracy compared with traditional approach.