系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2017, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (12): 2863-2868.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2017.12.33

• 可靠性 • 上一篇    下一篇

混合不确定多态系统可靠性的EUGF分析方法

彭文胜1,2, 张建国1,3, 张金洋1,3, 王骞1,3#br#

#br#
  

  1. 1. 北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院, 北京 100191; 2. 中国航空综合技术研究所, 北京 100028; 3. 北京航空航天大学可靠性与环境工程技术重点实验室, 北京 100191
  • 出版日期:2017-11-28 发布日期:2017-12-07

EUGF analysis of reliability of MSS containing hybrid uncertainties

PENG Wensheng1,2, ZHANG Jianguo1,3, ZHANG Jinyang1,3, WANG Qian1,3   

  1. 1. School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China;
    2. AVIC China AeroPolytechnology Establishment, Beijing 100028, China;  3. Science and Technology onReliability and Environment Engineering Laboratory, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
  • Online:2017-11-28 Published:2017-12-07

摘要:

在进行多状态系统可靠性分析时,很多情况下系统中同时存在着多个类型不确定信息,如一些复杂系统中,由于样本量的差异,一些信息可以作为随机信息,而另一些信息由于缺少足够的样本,只能以区间形式给出。提出一种基于证据通用生成函数理论的多状态系统可靠性分析方法,来处理多类不确定性信息的多态系统。该方法基于证据不确定性量化理论,能够充分利用区间信息和认知信息,避免了系统中信息的浪费。基于证据量化理论建立证据通用生成函数模型,采用信度和似然度对多态系统进行可靠性评价,提高了基于认知不确定性的可靠性分析结果的可信性。对于同时含有随机信息和认知信息的多态系统,该方法首先通过将随机信息离散处理,然后建立统一的证据通用生成理论模型进行多态可靠性分析。通过案例分析对所提出的方法进行了验证。

Abstract:

When analyzing the reliability of the multistate system (MSS), there always are multiple types of uncertainties in the MSS. For example, in some complex systems, due to the differences of the sample amount, some information are random, and some information is only given as intervals since a lack of samples. An multiple state reliability analysis method based on evidence universal generating function (EUGF) to handle MSS containing multiple type uncertainties is proposed. This method based on the evidence theory, and the evidence theory has good quantification ability of epistemic uncertainty such as interval information, experts information, and it could make full use of such uncertainty information in engineering. The EUGF provides two measures of belief and plausibility for reliability evaluation of MSS, thus it could improve the incredibility of the reliability results of the MSS including imprecise information. For the MSS containing hybrid uncertainties of intervals and random uncertainty, first the random uncertainties are divided into discrete intervals. Then the uniform EUGF model for hybrid uncertainties is built. Finally, the reliability of MSS is analyzed based on the EUGF. Some cases are illustrated to verify the EUGF method.