Abstract:

A new flight risk assessment approach based on multidimensional extreme Copula is proposed using multivariate extreme value theory and coupled system modeling ideas. First, we extract three-dimensional wake extreme parameters required for assessing the risk using Monte Carlo method, verify the extracted extreme parameters and the test data has the same distribution form, then build a flight risk determination condition; Second, we propose the four adaptive weight parameters (FAWP) for three-dimensional extreme parameters based on the result that the one-dimensional extreme parameters meet generalized extreme value distribution; Third, adaptive range particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to identify unknown parameters of the one-dimensional and three-dimensional objective function. The results of fitting test show FAWP Copula model has higher accuracy than the other Copula models, so it is the most suitable model to describe the thick tail formed by multi-dimensional extreme values. At last, the risk probability in the situation of near-ground wake encounter is evaluated using FAWP Copula, and it has some certain reference values for research directions such as wake navigation control and risk aversion.