Abstract:

Due to the complex structures of large equipment, it is difficult to assess heath conditions of large equipment accurately. To solve this problem， health degradation Petri nets (HDPN) is presented. In this model, degradation information of the minimum monitoring units is taken as the input. The degradation of health conditions is described by the changes of the credibility of health grades. Four types of relationships between places are analyzed to assess health conditions accurately. Then, the transforming rules between health degree and health credibility are proposed. According to the characteristics of the health condition degradation, nonlinear- time-varying parameters are introduced in the discrete grey model, which is used to forecast health conditions. Finally, health degradation of some launcher is analyzed by using the proposed model. Results show that this model is practicable.