系统工程与电子技术

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拦截鱼雷作战的深弹布设优化决策模型

赵峰1,2,胡伟文1,郑晓滨1   

  1. 1. 海军工程大学理学院, 湖北 武汉430033;
    2. 中国人民解放军海军第91208部队, 山东 青岛266000
  • 出版日期:2014-05-22 发布日期:2010-01-03

Decision making model for optimizing the laying of depth charge in intercepting torpedo combat

ZHAO Feng1,2, HU Wei-wen1, ZHENG Xiao-bin1   

  1. 1. College of Science, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, China;
    2. Unit 91208 of the PLA Navy, Qingdao 266000, China
  • Online:2014-05-22 Published:2010-01-03

摘要:

在悬浮式深弹拦截鱼雷作战中,深弹布设是影响作战效能的关键因素。在分析深弹对鱼雷拦截概率及其影响因素的基础上,提出了深弹阵对预定拦截线有效覆盖率的概念;考量深弹的布设数量及阵形因素,建立了拦截概率的计算模型和深弹布设的优化决策模型;采用随机模拟和二项分布的正态逼近方法估算拦截概率,通过对可选方案的比较得到深弹布设的最优策略,并分析了模型的有效性。结果表明,该方法可为装备的指控自动化系统研发、战训法研讨提供参考。

Abstract:

In the combat of hovering depth charge intercepting torpedo, the laying of depth charges is a key factor that influences the war effectiveness. Based on the analysis of the interception probability and its influence factors, the concept of effective coverage rate for depth charge impact area to predetermined intercepting line is presented. Considering the amount and array of depth charges to be laid, the model for calculating interception probability and the optimization decision making model of laying depth charges are constructed. By using random simulation and binomial distribution normal approximation, the interception probability is estimated. The best strategy of laying depth charges is gained by contrasting the optional projects, and the model effectiveness is analyzed. Results show that the proposed method can provide a reference for the research of command system and equipment training.