Abstract:

The structure and the parameters of Bayesian network that is used for situation assessment are usually invariable in the past. In order to enhance the veracity of combat situation, a variable structure interval probability dynamic Bayesian network(VSIP-DBN) is proposed. The definition and the inference algorithm of the VSIP-DBN are given, the structure of VSIP-DBN can be varied according to the situation, and the rule of the network structure change is proposed. The parameters of the network are within the interval domain and the parameter learning method is also given. The air combat situation is assessed using VSIP-DBN. In the condition of interval probability parameter，even with incidental observation error, the simulation results show that the proposed model can accurately reflect the correct situation in the typical situations, so the proposed model enhance the flexibility of situation assessment.