Abstract:

To overcome the disadvantage of the traditional combination consumptive forecast model for spare parts in combination weighting, a combination consumptive forecast model of missile spare parts based on improved Theil coefficient induced ordered weighted harmonic averaging (IOWHA) operator and Markov chain (MC) is proposed. Firstly, the single item forecast method is improved with the least square model, date transformation technology and weighing theory. The combination forecast model based on Theil coefficient and IOWHA operator is established. By MC, the forecast accuracy condition of each single item forecast model at the forecast time point can be qualitatively surmised, thus its weighted coefficient at the forecast time point could be obtained by genetic algorithm (GA). Experimental results show that the proposed combination forecast model significantly reduces forecast errors.