Abstract:

In safety analysis and evaluation of aerospace systems, it is difficult to deal with imprecise and incomplete information under the framework of probability theory. In order to solve this problem, an evidential network (EN) approach is proposed on the basis of Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and Bayesian network. The definition and modeling framework of the EN is presented, including network structure model, EN belief relation table, original information pretreatment, EN inference algorithm and result analysis. The EN solution procedure and steps are also concluded for operating conveniently. Finally, an aerospace system safety analysis and evaluation example is examined to illustrate and show the feasibility and validity of the proposed approach.