基于概率强度偏好的冲突分析图模型方法

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.02.14

系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2025, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (2): 478-485.doi: 10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.02.14

• 系统工程 • 上一篇

基于概率强度偏好的冲突分析图模型方法

董艺博¹, 葛冰峰¹^,*, 黄宇铭¹, 侯泽强¹, 丁广东¹, 刘子义²

1. 国防科技大学系统工程学院, 湖南长沙 410073
2. 中国人民解放军31022部队, 北京 100096

收稿日期:2023-03-22 出版日期:2025-02-25 发布日期:2025-03-18
通讯作者: 葛冰峰
作者简介:董艺博 (1999—), 男, 硕士研究生, 主要研究方向为冲突博弈分析推演
葛冰峰 (1983—), 男, 教授, 博士研究生导师, 博士, 主要研究方向为冲突博弈分析推演、组合选择决策分析
黄宇铭 (1994—), 男, 博士研究生, 主要研究方向为冲突博弈分析推演、智能优化
侯泽强 (1998—), 男, 硕士研究生, 主要研究方向为对抗分析研讨、冲突博弈分析推演
丁广东 (1997—), 男, 硕士研究生, 主要研究方向为冲突博弈分析推演
刘子义 (1991—), 男, 工程师, 硕士, 主要研究方向为战略决策、作战规划
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(71971213);国家自然科学基金(72071206);湖南省研究生科研创新重点项目(CX20210003)

Probabilistic-strength preference based method in the graph model for conflict resolution

Yibo DONG¹, Bingfeng GE¹^,*, Yuming HUANG¹, Zeqiang HOU¹, Guangdong DING¹, Ziyi LIU²

1. College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China
2. Unit 31022 of the PLA, Beijing 100096, China

Received:2023-03-22 Online:2025-02-25 Published:2025-03-18
Contact: Bingfeng GE

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对现实复杂冲突中决策者策略选择偏好不确定性和强度并存的情形, 融合概率偏好与强度偏好两种表示方式的优势, 提出了基于概率强度偏好的冲突分析图模型(graph model for conflict resolution, GMCR)方法。首先, 概述了经典GMCR方法的基本概念和流程; 其次, 提出了概率强度偏好结构, 以综合表征决策者的偏好情况; 在此基础上, 重点定义了8种稳定性类型以揭示复杂博弈行为的内在逻辑规则; 最后, 示例研究了各方策略选择偏好和见招拆招的策略交互过程, 验证了以所提方法解决多方冲突的可行性与有效性。

关键词: 冲突分析图模型, 概率偏好, 强度偏好

Abstract:

In response to the coexistence of uncertainty and strength in preferences of decision makers in complex conflicts in reality, combined with the advantages of two expression methods of probabilistic preference and strength preference, the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) method based on probabilistic-strength preference is proposed. Firsty, the basic concept and process of classical GMCR method are reviewed. Then, a probabilistic-strength preference structure is introduced to comprehensively characterize the preferences of decision makers. After that, eight stability definitions are redefined to reveal the logical rules inherent in complex game behaviors. Finally, the method is applied to study the choice preferences and strategy interactions in each party's strategies, which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method in solving conflicts involving multiple parties.

Key words: graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR), probabilistic preference, strength preference

中图分类号:

C934

董艺博, 葛冰峰, 黄宇铭, 侯泽强, 丁广东, 刘子义. 基于概率强度偏好的冲突分析图模型方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2025, 47(2): 478-485.

Yibo DONG, Bingfeng GE, Yuming HUANG, Zeqiang HOU, Guangdong DING, Ziyi LIU. Probabilistic-strength preference based method in the graph model for conflict resolution[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2025, 47(2): 478-485.

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决策者及其策略		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
A方	撤军	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	N	N
	维持	N	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	N
	升级	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y
B方	结盟	Y	Y	Y	N	N	N	N	N	N	Y	Y	Y	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N
	抵抗	N	N	N	Y	Y	Y	N	N	N	N	N	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	N	N
	中立	N	N	N	N	N	N	Y	Y	Y	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	Y	Y	Y
C方	制裁	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N
	参战	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	N	N	N	N	N
	弃B	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y

状态	Nash(G: S, W)				GMR(G: S, W)				SMR(G: S, W)				SEQ(G: S, W)
状态	A	B	C	E	A	B	C	E	A	B	C	E	A	B	C	E
s₁	-	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y
s₂	-	Y	Y	-	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y³	Y	Y	Y	-	Y	Y
s₃	Y²	Y	Y	Y	Y²	Y	Y	Y	Y²	Y	Y	Y	Y²	Y	Y	Y
s₄	-	-	Y	-	Y¹	Y	Y	Y	Y³	Y	Y	Y	Y¹	Y	Y	Y
s₅	Y¹	-	Y	-	Y¹	Y	Y	Y	Y¹	Y	Y	Y	Y¹	Y	Y	Y
s₆	Y¹	-	Y	-	Y¹	-	Y	-	Y¹	-	Y	-	Y¹	-	Y
s₇	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
s₈	-	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y
s₉	-	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y
s₁₀	-	Y	-	-	-	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y
s₁₁	-	Y	-	-	-	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y
s₁₂	Y²	Y	-	-	Y²	Y	-	-	Y²	Y	-	-	Y²	Y	-
s₁₃	-	-	-	-	-	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y
s₁₄	Y	-	-	-	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	-
s₁₅	Y	-	-	-	Y	-	-	-	Y	-	-	-	Y	-	-
s₁₆	-	Y	-	-	Y¹	Y	Y	Y	Y²	Y	Y	Y	Y¹	Y	Y	Y
s₁₇	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
s₁₈	Y	-	-	-	Y	-	Y	-	Y	-	Y	-	Y	-	Y
s₁₉	Y	Y	-	-	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	-
s₂₀	-	Y	-	-	Y¹	Y	Y	Y	Y¹	Y	Y	Y	-	Y	-
s₂₁	-	Y	-	-	Y¹	Y	-	-	Y¹	Y	-	-	-	Y	-

基于概率强度偏好的冲突分析图模型方法

Probabilistic-strength preference based method in the graph model for conflict resolution

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