基于有向网络的航空安全事故风险识别与评估

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2024.06.17

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对航空安全事故风险识别与评估问题, 基于2019年航空安全事故, 通过事件树分析方法分析风险事件间的因果关系, 建立了有向加权航空安全风险网络模型。面对航空安全风险传播的情况, 引入传染病模型对航空安全风险网络风险传播进行建模, 对风险事件进行排序以实现航空安全风险识别, 提出了航空安全风险网络风险指标与航空安全事故发生风险指标, 以评估航空系统安全风险。结果发现, 能见度差、飞机系统故障、设备维护不足、违规操作、疲劳、资源配置不当、应急响应措施不当、飞行准备不足、教育培训不足等应当引起管理者的关注。

关键词: 航空系统, 航空事故, 网络建模, 传染病模型, 风险识别, 风险评估

Abstract:

Aiming at the identification and evaluation problem of aviation safety accident risk, based on the aviation safety accidents in 2019, the causal relationship between risk events is analyzed with event tree analysis method, and a directed weighted aviation safety risk network model is established. The infectious disease model is introduced to model the network risk propagation with the spread of aviation safety risk, and the risk events are ranked to identify aviation safety risk. The aviation safety risk network risk index and the aviation safety accident occurrence risk index are proposed to evaluate the aviation system safety risk. The results show that managers should be concerned about poor visibility, aircraft system failures, insufficient equipment maintenance, illegal operations, fatigue, improper resource allocation, improper emergency response measures, insufficient flight readiness, and insufficient education and training.

Key words: aviation system, aviation accident, network modeling, infectious model, risk identification, risk evaluation

中图分类号:

张晗, 王强. 基于有向网络的航空安全事故风险识别与评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2024, 46(6): 1995-2001.

Han ZHANG, Qiang WANG. Aviation safety accident risk identification and evaluation based on directed networks[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2024, 46(6): 1995-2001.

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类别	节点
顶事件	㊳航空安全事故
触发事件	①疲劳; ②压力; ③自满大意; ④技能不足; ⑤程序选择不当; ⑥违规操作; ⑦特情处置不力; ⑧设备维护不足; ⑨飞机系统故障; ⑩鸟害; ⑪风切变; ⑫能见度差; ⑬协调沟通不顺; ⑭组织指挥混乱
风险传播演化事件	⑮报警系统未保持常开; ⑯可疑事件未认真对待; ⑰忽视警告; ⑱忽视潜在风险; ⑲过度依赖驾驶系统; ⑳应急响应措施不当; ㉑航行计划执行得不好; ㉒低估环境的影响; ㉓未对危险做出充分估计; ㉔没有紧急措施; ㉕机上通讯工具选择错误; ㉖问题救治不彻底; ㉗不遵守引航计划; ㉘丧失感知能力; ㉙资源未充分利用; ㉚教育培训不足; ㉛作业环境不良; ㉜法规程序管理混乱; ㉝工具设备管理不当; ㉞飞行准备不足; ㉟资源配置不当; ㊱监督检查不严; ㊲岗位资格管理不严

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