基于累积前景理论和学识评级的PL-VIKOR群决策

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2023.06.20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为解决概率语言环境下评价信息提取不合理、由学识差异导致决策不够科学高效、传统排序方法区分度不足等问题, 提出一种基于累积前景理论和学识评级的改进的概率语言多准则妥协解(probabilistic linguistic vlsekriterijumska optimizacija I kompromisno resenje, PL-VIKOR)群决策方法。首先, 基于累积前景理论将概率语言的术语值和概率值融合为综合值; 其次, 结合主观自我评估与客观社会评级, 确定综合权重, 以最大化专业贡献度; 然后, 建立以综合权重为调节依据的修正公式快速实现群体共识; 而后, 通过引入夹角余弦值提升了VIKOR方法的性能; 最后, 通过抽水储能项目的选址应用及对比分析, 验证了所提方法的有效性和合理性。

关键词: 多属性群体决策, 累积前景理论, 学识评级, 共识达成, 改进的概率语言多准则妥协解

Abstract:

In order to solve the problems of unreasonable evaluation information extraction in the probabilistic language environment, unscientific and inefficient decision-making caused by differences in knowledge, and insufficient discrimination of traditional sorting methods, an improved probabilistic linguistic vlsekriterijumska optimizacija I kompromisno resenje (PL-VIKOR) based on cumulative prospect theory and knowledge rating group decision method is proposed is this paper. Firstly, the term value and probability value of probabilistic language are fused into a comprehensive value based on cumulative prospect theory. Secondly, the comprehensive weight is determined by combining subjective self-assessment and objective social rating to maximize the professional contribution. Then, a modified formula adjusted by the comprehensive weight is established to achieve the group consensus quickly. Further, the performance of the VIKOR method is improved by introducing the cosine value. Finally, the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed method are verified through the site selection application and comparative analysis of pumped energy storage projects.

Key words: multi-criteria group decision-making (MGDM), cumulative prospect theory, knowledge rating, consensus-reaching, improved probabilistic linguistic vlsekriterijumska optimizacija I kompromisno resenje (VIKOR)

中图分类号:

TP311.52

张煜, 王磊, 卢麟, 叶永平, 万亮. 基于累积前景理论和学识评级的PL-VIKOR群决策[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2023, 45(6): 1762-1771.

Yu ZHANG, Lei WANG, Lin LU, Yongping YE, Liang WAN. PL-VIKOR group decision-making based on cumulative prospect theory and knowledge rating[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2023, 45(6): 1762-1771.

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专家	方案	c₁	c₂	c₃	c₄	c₅
e₁	a₁	s_-2(0.1), s_-1(0.9)	s₀ (0.4), s₁ (0.6)	s₁ (0.3), s₂ (0.7)	s₀ (0.4), s₁ (0.6)	s_-2 (0.8), s_-1 (0.2)
	a₂	s_-1 (0.6), s₀ (0.4)	s₀ (1)	s₀ (0.7), s₁ (0.3)	s₁ (1)	s₀ (0.5), s₁ (0.5)
	a₃	s_-1 (0.6), s₀ (0.4)	s₀ (0.3), s₁ (0.7)	s₀ (0.7), s₁ (0.3)	s₀ (1)	s₀ (0.5), s₁ (0.5)
	a₄	s₀ (0.2), s₁ (0.8)	s₀ (0.1), s₁ (0.9)	s_-2 (0.7), s_-1 (0.1), s₀ (0.2)	s₀ (0.1), s₁ (0.9)	s_-2 (0.1), s_-1 (0.1), s₀ (0.8)
e₂	a₁	s_-1 (0.1), s₀ (0.9)	-	s_-2 (0.1), s_-1 (0.9)	-	s_-2 (0.1), s_-1 (0.9)
	a₂	s_-1 (0.2), s₀ (0.8)	-	s_-1 (0.2), s₀ (0.8)	-	s_-1 (0.2), s₀ (0.8)
	a₃	s_-1 (0.2), s₀ (0.8)	-	s_-1 (0.2), s₀ (0.8)	-	s_-1 (0.2), s₀ (0.8)
	a₄	s_-1 (0.1), s₀ (0.9)	-	s₀ (0.9), s₁ (0.1)	-	s_-1 (0.1), s₀ (0.9)

e₁₆	a₁	s_-1 (0.1), s₀ (0.9)	s₁ (0.5), s₂ (0.5)	s_-1 (0.1), s₀ (0.9)	s₁ (0.5), s₂ (0.5)	-
	a₂	s_-1 (0.2), s₀ (0.8)	s_-1 (0.2), s₀ (0.3), s₁ (0.5)	s_-1 (0.2), s₀ (0.8)	s_-1 (0.2), s₀ (0.5), s₁ (0.3)	-
	a₃	s_-1 (0.2), s₀ (0.8)	s_-1 (0.2), s₀ (0.5), s₁ (0.3)	s_-1 (0.2), s₀ (0.8)	s_-1 (0.2), s₀ (0.5), s₁ (0.3)	-
	a₄	s₀ (0.1), s₁ (0.9)	s_-2 (0.1), s_-1 (0.8), s₀ (0.1)	s₀ (0.1), s₁ (0.9)	s_-2 (0.1), s_-1 (0.8), s₀ (0.1)	-

专家	方案	c₁	c₂	c₃	c₄	c₅
e₁	a₁	-2.448 1	0.473 9	1.300 8	0.473 9	-3.348 4
	a₂	-1.165 7	0.000 0	0.318 4	1.000 0	0.420 6
	a₃	-1.165 7	0.533 8	0.318 4	0.000 0	0.420 6
	a₄	0.607 4	0.711 7	-2.816 7	0.711 7	-1.087 4
e₂	a₁	-0.382 8	0.000 0	-2.448 1	0.000 0	-2.448 1
	a₂	-0.578 3	0.000 0	-0.578 3	0.000 0	-0.578 3
	a₃	-0.578 3	0.000 0	-0.578 3	0.000 0	-0.578 3
	a₄	-0.382 8	0.000 0	0.186 3	0.000 0	-0.382 8

e₁₆	a₁	-0.382 8	1.194 8	-0.382 8	1.194 8	0.000 0
	a₂	-0.578 3	-0.157 7	-0.578 3	-0.259 9	0.000 0
	a₃	-0.578 3	-0.259 9	-0.578 3	-0.259 9	0.000 0
	a₄	0.711 7	-2.209 7	0.711 7	-2.209 7	0.000 0

专家	权值	c₁	c₂	c₃	c₄	c₅
e₁	γ	0.900 0	0.900 0	0.900 0	0.900 0	0.900 0
	μ	0.900 0	0.300 0	0.100 0	0.300 0	0.700 0
	η	0.810 0	0.270 0	0.090 0	0.270 0	0.630 0
	λ	0.187 1	0.060 8	0.014 9	0.055 4	0.130 7
e₂	γ	0.900 0	0.900 0	0.900 0	0.900 0	0.900 0
	μ	0.100 0	0.000 0	0.900 0	0.000 0	0.900 0
	η	0.090 0	0.000 0	0.810 0	0.000 0	0.810 0
	λ	0.020 8	0.000 0	0.133 7	0.000 0	0.168 0

e₁₆	γ	0.200 0	0.200 0	0.200 0	0.200 0	0.200 0
	μ	0.600 0	0.100 0	0.800 0	0.100 0	0
	η	0.120 0	0.020 0	0.160 0	0.020 0	0
	λ	0.027 7	0.004 5	0.026 4	0.004 1	0

方案	c₁	c₂	c₃	c₄	c₅
a₁	-1.156 9	-0.534 6	-1.457 5	-0.534 6	-2.000 2
a₂	-0.829 6	-0.192 9	-0.565 8	-0.146 2	0.201 2
a₃	-0.829 6	-0.151 3	-0.565 8	-0.204 3	0.201 2
a₄	-0.135 6	0.021 9	0.278 6	0.242 3	-1.446 4

方案	S	R	cos	Q	排序
a₁	1.000 0	1.000 0	1.000 0	1.000 0	4
a₂	0.339 5	0.360 4	0.000 0	0.279 9	2
a₃	0.339 5	0.360 4	0.052 1	0.290 4	3
a₄	0.000 0	0.000 0	0.203 9	0.040 8	1