两阶段非线性Wiener过程退化建模与可靠性分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.04.29

Abstract

Abstract:

Reliability analysis based on product degradation data has become a research focus and a difficult topic in the field of reliability engineering. A two-phase nonlinear degradation model based on the Wiener process is proposed. It can reasonably consider the commonly encountered situation where a change point locates between the test time, and specific properties of each unit are shown regarding the change point. Then a maximum likelihood parameter estimation method is given. Reliability analysis and lifetime prediction methods are constructed. Finally, the reasonability and effectiveness of the methods are validated by a comparative analysis regarding high voltage pulse capacitors. The results show that the proposed model can describe the nonlinear time-varying properties illustrated by the degradation process more accurately than the multi-phase linear Wiener process model, and then more reasonable lifetime assessment results can be obtained.

Key words: nonlinear degradation modeling, multi-phase degradation, Wiener process, lifetime prediction

CLC Number:

V488
O231

Ao ZHANG, Zhihua WANG, Zhenping ZHAO, Xuguo QIN, Qiong WU, Chengrui LIU. Two-phase nonlinear Wiener process for degradation modeling and reliability analysis[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(4): 954-959.

Figures/Tables 6

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Table 1

Table 2

Fig.3

Table 3

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参数	μ₁	σ₁²	α₁	γ₁	μ_τ	μ₂	σ₂²	α₂	γ₂	σ_τ²
取值	1.857e-4	0.161 6	5.125	0.697 2	6.489	5.242e-2	5.078e-2	2.048	1.144	0.391 8

模型	M₀	M₁
未知参数个数	13	8
log-LF	-7.164	-43.99
AIC	40.33	104.0

模型	M₀	M₁
t_0.5/月	34.21	137.8
t_0.1/月	33.59	118.8

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Two-phase nonlinear Wiener process for degradation modeling and reliability analysis

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