隐含非线性退化设备的剩余寿命在线预测方法

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.06.27

Abstract

Abstract:

Stochastic degradation equipment will produce the problems of nonlinearity and implicitness in actual operation, which will cause uncertainty on the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) prediction. Existing RUL prediction methods have not systematically studied implicit nonlinear degradation modeling and corresponding RUL distribution. The Wiener process is used to build the implicit dual-nonlinear degradation model. The online monitoring data of equipment is used to update the posterior distribution of implicit states. By using the full probability formula, the RUL distribution is derived based on the first hitting time (FHT) distribution. The simulation parameters are set based on the degradation data of the laser, which verifies the accuracy and rationality of the proposed method.

Key words: remaining useful lifetime(RUL) prediction, Wiener process, degradation modeling, measurement error, dual-nonlinearity

CLC Number:

TB114.3

Zhongyi CAI, Zezhou WANG, Xiaofeng ZHANG, Yan LI. Online prediction method of remaining useful lifetime for implicit nonlinear degradation equipment[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(6): 1410-1416.

Figures/Tables 8

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References 25

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模型	u_λ	σ_λ²	b	Ψ	σ_B²	σ²	-ln L(·)	AIC
真值	1	0.062 5	1.5	0.02	0.04	0.09	-	-
M₁	1.058	0.065 7	1.69	0.021	0.076	0.094	21.55	56.54
M₂	1.032	0.114 2	1.65	-	0.062	0.172	26.61	64.42
M₃	0.946	0.404 4	1	0.028	0.118	0.156	32.56	76.32

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Online prediction method of remaining useful lifetime for implicit nonlinear degradation equipment

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