Abstract:

A design structure matrix-based simulation model of complex product development process incorporating stochastic activities overlap is presented to model the sequential, parallel and coupled relationship between activities. This model can effectively deal with activities overlapping iteration and sequential iteration. This model takes into account uncertain activities duration and cost. A priority rule is designed to cope with resource conflict when existing uncertain factors and iteration; and a discrete event system simulation algorithm is developed. The example of preliminary design of an uninhabited combat aerial vehicle is used to illustrate the proposed simulation model. The probability of duration delay and cost overrun is estimated by analyzing simulation output data. The simulation results show that the presented model is more in line with the actual situation of the project compared with existing models.