基于半分析法的改进SOLEM模型与空间碎片长期演化分析

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.09.24

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to solve the problem of compatibility between calculation speed and accuracy of space debris environmental long-term evolution, a semi-analytical method is proposed for long-term orbital prediction. The prediction accuracy and speed of the semi-analytical method are tested. Compared with the numerical method, the semi-major axis deviation of the low Earth orbit in 10 years is less than 7 km, and the consumed time of prediction is less than 0.11%. To evaluate the applicability of the semi-analytical method, orbital prediction is carried out for more than 1000 space debris with 45 years of orbital data, and the evolutionary trend of the number of debris in orbit is analyzed. The result indicates that the error of the debris number as of July 2024 is 2.4%. Based on the semi-analytical orbital prediction, the space object long-term evolution model （SOLEM） is improved, and comparison with representative international models verifies the higher reliability of the improved model.

Key words: semi-analytical orbital prediction, space debris, long-term evolution, space object long-term evolution model （SOLEM）

CLC Number:

P 139

Fengchun ZHENG, Yao ZHANG, Jing LIU, Qingbo GAN, Haowen CHENG, Jingshi TANG. Modified SOLEM model based on semi-analytical method and long-term evolution analysis of space debris[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2025, 47(9): 3031-3040.

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References 31

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摄动力	低轨	中轨	地球同步轨道	大偏心率轨道
地球非球形引力	${J_2},{J_3},{J_4},{J_{2,2}}$	${J_2},{J_3},{J_4},{J_{2,2}}$	${J_2},{J_3},{J_4},{J_{2,2}}$	${J_2},{J_3},{J_4},{J_{2,2}}$
日、月引力	√	√	√	√
大气阻力	√	×	×	√
太阳光压	√	√	√	√

轨道类型	初始轨道
LEO	[7 500 km, 0.0001, 50°, 50°, 50°, 50°]
MEO	[26 500 km, 0.0001, 50°, 50°, 50°, 50°]
GEO	[42 378 km, 0.0001, 0°, 50°, 50°, 50°]
HEO	[26 500 km, 0.2, 50°, 50°, 50°, 50°]

轨道类型	分析法/s	半分析法/s	数值法/s	耗时比例/%
LEO	0.53	2.48	2 310.90	0.11
MEO	0.44	1.57	2 281.40	0.07
GEO	0.32	0.27	2 290.26	0.01
HEO	0.46	2.58	2 376.85	0.11

模型参数	说明
演化时长/年	200
初始空间碎片环境数据	2018年2月1日的空间碎片环境，包括LEO和穿过 LEO轨道的尺寸大于10 cm的物体，总计26 317个
卫星发射模型	2010年1月1日至2017年12月31日的卫星发射信息，在演化期间每隔8年循环发射
卫星在轨任务期/年	8
任务后处置成功率/%	90
空间环境参数	F10.7具有11年周期，且每月更新1次；Ap=9
蒙特卡罗仿真次数	50

模型	说明
初始空间碎片环境数据	2023年1月1日的空间碎片环境，包括LEO和穿过 LEO轨道的尺寸大于10 cm的物体，总计25 980个
卫星发射模型	2017年1月1日至2022年12月31日的卫星发射信息，在演化期间循环发射
星座发射模型	2023—2223年总计发射244 708颗
星座中卫星任务期/年	5
星座碰撞规避	任务期间考虑人工碰撞规避，与其他碎片不产生碰撞
蒙特卡罗仿真次数	50

Modified SOLEM model based on semi-analytical method and long-term evolution analysis of space debris

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