基于滚动优化结构的行动过程实时决策方法

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.03.22

Abstract

Abstract:

Because of the uncertainty for the battlefield environment in modern warfare, it is necessary for commanders to obtain the optimal course of action (COA) in real-time and ensure the combat effectiveness under the condition of situation changes. Considering the factors such as the battlefield situation changes and the command intention intervention during the warfare process, by employing Bayesian network model of COA, this paper studies the real-time recursive optimization method of COA under feedback system, which effectively improves the applicability of action scheme. Through the simulation case analysis, it can be seen that the evaluation score of COA scheme generated by recursive optimization structure can be increased by more than 15% on the basis of normal optimization. The result indicates that the influences of battlefield situation changes and the command intention intervention have been overcome by the recursive optimization of COA under complex combat environment, and the optimality has been ensured in the whole combat process.

Key words: real-time decision, course of action (COA), recursive optimization, situation feedback

CLC Number:

E917

Dong HUANG, Gang LIU, Xueyun JIANG, Lizhi LIU, Jinlin GUO. Method of real-time decision for course of action based on recursive optimization structure[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2025, 47(3): 904-911.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Table 1

Feasible COA generated based on the causal relationship model"

序号	COA序列
1	$\left\|\left.\begin{aligned}& t_0 \\& a_4^3 \vee a_5^3 \vee a_6^3\end{aligned} \Rightarrow\left\|\begin{array}{l}t_1 \\a_2^3 \vee a_3^3\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_2 \\& a_1^3\end{aligned} \Rightarrow\left\|\begin{array}{l}t_3 \\a_7^1\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_4 \\& a_4^1 \vee a_5^1\end{aligned} \Rightarrow \right\rvert\, \begin{aligned}& t_5 \\& a_8^1 \vee a_9^1\end{aligned}\right.$
2	$\left\|\begin{array}{l\|l\|l\|l}t_0 \\a_4^3\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_1 \\& a_2^3 \vee a_5^2\end{aligned} \Rightarrow\left\|\begin{array}{l}t_2 \\a_1^3 \vee a_6^1\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_3 \\& a_7^1\end{aligned} \Rightarrow\left\|\begin{array}{l}t_4 \\a_4^1 \vee a_5^1\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_5 \\& a_8^1 \vee a_9^1\end{aligned}$
3	$\left.\left\|\begin{array}{l}t_0 \\a_4^3 \vee a_5^2 \vee a_6^2\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_1 \\& a_2^3\end{aligned} \Rightarrow\left\|\begin{array}{l}t_2 \\a_1^3\end{array} \Rightarrow \left\|\begin{array}{l}t_3 \\a_7^1\end{array}\right. \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_4 \\& a_5^1 \vee a_6^1\end{aligned} \Rightarrow \right\rvert\, \begin{aligned}& t_5 \\& a_8^1 \vee a_9^1\end{aligned}$
4	$\left.\left\|\begin{array}{l\|l\|l\|l\|l}t_0 \\a_5^4\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_1 \\& a_4^2 \vee a_6^2\end{aligned} \Rightarrow\left\|\begin{array}{l}t_2 \\a_2^3 \vee a_1^3\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_3 \\& a_7^1\end{aligned} \Rightarrow \right\rvert\, \begin{aligned}& t_4 \\& a_5^1 \vee a_8^2\end{aligned} \Rightarrow \left\|\begin{aligned}& t_5 \\& a_9^1\end{aligned}\right.$
5	$\left.\left\|\begin{array}{l\|l\|l\|l\|l}t_0 \\a_5^4 \vee a_6^3\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_1 \\& a_4^1\end{aligned} \Rightarrow\left\|\begin{array}{l}t_2 \\a_2^3 \vee a_1^2\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_3 \\& a_7^1 \vee a_4^1\end{aligned} \Rightarrow \right\rvert\, \begin{aligned}& t_4 \\& a_5^1 \vee a_8^2\end{aligned} \Rightarrow \left\|\begin{aligned}& t_5 \\& a_9^1\end{aligned}\right.$

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Fig.5

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序号	COA序列
1	$\left\|\left.\begin{aligned}& t_0 \\& a_4^3 \vee a_5^3 \vee a_6^3\end{aligned} \Rightarrow\left\|\begin{array}{l}t_1 \\a_2^3 \vee a_3^3\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_2 \\& a_1^3\end{aligned} \Rightarrow\left\|\begin{array}{l}t_3 \\a_7^1\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_4 \\& a_4^1 \vee a_5^1\end{aligned} \Rightarrow \right\rvert\, \begin{aligned}& t_5 \\& a_8^1 \vee a_9^1\end{aligned}\right.$
2	$\left\|\begin{array}{l\|l\|l\|l}t_0 \\a_4^3\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_1 \\& a_2^3 \vee a_5^2\end{aligned} \Rightarrow\left\|\begin{array}{l}t_2 \\a_1^3 \vee a_6^1\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_3 \\& a_7^1\end{aligned} \Rightarrow\left\|\begin{array}{l}t_4 \\a_4^1 \vee a_5^1\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_5 \\& a_8^1 \vee a_9^1\end{aligned}$
3	$\left.\left\|\begin{array}{l}t_0 \\a_4^3 \vee a_5^2 \vee a_6^2\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_1 \\& a_2^3\end{aligned} \Rightarrow\left\|\begin{array}{l}t_2 \\a_1^3\end{array} \Rightarrow \left\|\begin{array}{l}t_3 \\a_7^1\end{array}\right. \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_4 \\& a_5^1 \vee a_6^1\end{aligned} \Rightarrow \right\rvert\, \begin{aligned}& t_5 \\& a_8^1 \vee a_9^1\end{aligned}$
4	$\left.\left\|\begin{array}{l\|l\|l\|l\|l}t_0 \\a_5^4\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_1 \\& a_4^2 \vee a_6^2\end{aligned} \Rightarrow\left\|\begin{array}{l}t_2 \\a_2^3 \vee a_1^3\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_3 \\& a_7^1\end{aligned} \Rightarrow \right\rvert\, \begin{aligned}& t_4 \\& a_5^1 \vee a_8^2\end{aligned} \Rightarrow \left\|\begin{aligned}& t_5 \\& a_9^1\end{aligned}\right.$
5	$\left.\left\|\begin{array}{l\|l\|l\|l\|l}t_0 \\a_5^4 \vee a_6^3\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_1 \\& a_4^1\end{aligned} \Rightarrow\left\|\begin{array}{l}t_2 \\a_2^3 \vee a_1^2\end{array} \Rightarrow\right\| \begin{aligned}& t_3 \\& a_7^1 \vee a_4^1\end{aligned} \Rightarrow \right\rvert\, \begin{aligned}& t_4 \\& a_5^1 \vee a_8^2\end{aligned} \Rightarrow \left\|\begin{aligned}& t_5 \\& a_9^1\end{aligned}\right.$

方案序号	评价得分
1	92.08
2	89.23
3	92.67
4	93.50
5	88.92

时间点	态势/意图变化	最优COA
时间点	态势/意图变化	一次优化	滚动优化
t₀	-	a₅⁴	a₅⁴
t₁	蓝方岸防部队增援	a₄⁴	a₄⁴∨a₆³
t₂	蓝方空中火力增援	a₂³∨a₁²	a₂³∨a₁³
t₃	红方指挥员作战效能优先	a₇¹	a₇¹∨a₆⁰
t₄	红方舰艇增援	a₈²	a₅¹
t₅	-	a₉¹	a₈¹∨a₉¹

时间点	态势/意图变化	COA评价
时间点	态势/意图变化	一次优化	滚动优化
t₀~t₁	-	94.8	94.8
t₁~t₂	蓝方岸防部队增援	80.3	93.0
t₂~t₃	蓝方空中火力增援	73.2	91.9
t₃~t₄	红方指挥员作战效能优先	70.5	92.6
t₄~t₅	红方舰艇增援	84.0	94.6
平均评价得分		80.5	93.4

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Method of real-time decision for course of action based on recursive optimization structure

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