Abstract:

The anti-detection ability of ballistic missile confronted with warning satellite is critical to its survivability in boost phase. Combined the boost movement model and radiant intensity model of ballistic missile, along with infrared detection model of warning satellite, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of boost-phase survivability of ballistic missile is established. In addition, the response-surface approximate function is established to analyze the uncertain influence parameters in boost phase. A calculation case is provided, some uncertain parameters are analyzed, and the results show that the algorithm can obtain the survivability of ballistic missile in boost phase.