The definition, judgment criterion and reliability block diagram of the propulsion system during the sail phase are presented. The system weighted adjacency matrix is established by analyzing the navy vessel sailing mission process. Based on the analysis of the equipment failure types, the influence of different types of equipment failure during sailing is obtained. The judgment model of the propulsion system mission success is established. Combined with typical examples, the multi-agent method and thought are used to simulate the propulsion system sailing process and the equipment failure, and the success probability and related conclusions are obtained. It provides reference and basis for the corresponding research of other systems onboard, and lays the foundation for the mission success and effectiveness analysis of a ship and a fleet, and spare parts requirements in failure repair.