Abstract:

Poisson process is used to describe the occurrence of the common cause failure (CCF). It is proved that the Poisson process of common cause can be expressed as the superposition of all multiple failures. The mathematical relationship between the common cause occurrence rate and the multiple failure rate is given, and the Bayesian estimate of the multiple failure rate is solved by using the Jeffreys principle. The failure mechanism of incomplete commoncause is analyzed, and the reliability expression of the system is derived accordingly. The system reliability function is derived. An analytical example is provided, where both the independent failure and the incomplete CCF are considered to establish the system reliability function. In addition, a comparison with the complete CCF system and the normal system without CCF is made to illustrate that this model predicts system reliability more properly. Moreover, through the Bayesian updating of the parameters, the change pattern of the system reliability is dynamically reflected, which provides the basis for the determination of the system maintenance cycle.