Abstract:

To solve the weapon system portfolio problem under dynamic “capability requirement (CR)”, robust weapon system portfolio decision model is established. First, a multiple phase model in the form of decision tree for CR is build, based on uncertainty of CR. Then, based on the CR evolving model, the capability risk of “weapon system portfolio capability-CR” and its corresponding functions are defined by taking robustness into consideration,and this capability risk is considered as the decision criterion. To address the problem of system portfolio space explosion, the differential evolution algorithm is employed to obtain the optimal solution to the robust weapon system portfolio decision problem. Finally,a case is studied to demonstrate the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed model.