Abstract:

The program evaluation and review technique (PERT) is widely taken into analysis and evaluation of programs which include random time parameters, but the classical PERT is limited in modeling the case including random after working procedure and the method of time parameters evaluation is subjectivity and inaccurate. A jump virtual working procedure concept and its analysis method are proposed to enhance the modeling-ability of the classical PERT. Moreover, a new time parameters evaluation theory is presented to improve the reliability of parameters, which combines the Delphi evaluation method with experts’weight and takes the similar history data into account. Finally, a detaild analysis and evaluation of the operation support process of equipment based on the improved PERT validates the practicability of the proposed method.