Abstract:

The failure mechanisms of many products can be attributed to an underlying degradation, and typically the latent degradation state cannot be measured directly. For that feature a state-space model is proposed to describe the degradation process. Given the performance data collected from the in-service system, the latent degradation state can be estimated and its future projection is predicted in the Bayesian framework, then the performance reliability is evaluated. The developed method is applied to civil aircraft engines for real-time performance reliability assessment, and the results presented in the case study show that the developed method can work well for system real-time performance reliability estimation.