Abstract:

An iterative reasoning method is proposed to solve the problem that accurate reasoning of causality diagram (CD) is nondeterministic polynomial (NP) hard. By the point of view of graph theory , the probability computing mechanism of causality diagram reasoning is firstly analyzed, and a method of breaking down circuits by matrix is introduced. Then, an iterative reasoning algorithm which only needs simple matrix operations is proposed to greatly simplify the complex computing process of conventional causality diagram reasoning, thus achieving reasoning in the polynomial computation time complexity. Secondly, the problems and improved directions of the iterative algorithm are analyzed. Finally, an example demonstrates the effect of the iterative reasoning algorithm of CD. The research shows that the iterative reasoning algorithm of CD is effective and fast to work out right results.