Abstract:

To solve the problems that the number of forecasting models is bigger than samples and that the performance of combined forecasting may reduce when increasing a forecasting model in combined forecasting of ship equipment maintenance costs, the existing methods of two models′ encompassing tests are analyzed, then, the multi-models combining encompassing tests with an included are presented. With these foundations, according to the idea of stepwise processing encompassing tests by the relative merits of each model, the method of model selection for combined forecasting of ship equipment maintenance costs based on encompassing tests is presented, which can not only reduce the computation but also improve the performance of the combined forecasting for ship equipment maintenance cost.