失效信息已知时r/n(G)表决系统的剩余寿命预测

doi:10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2022.05.37

Abstract

Abstract:

In reliability engineering, it is of great significance to predict the residual life of systems. However, research on residual life of r-out-of-n: G system is insufficient due to its complex structure. Assuming that the lifetime of components follows exponential-Weibull distribution, the closed-form of residual life for r-out-of-n: G system is derived when the component failure information is known. Specifically, the closed-forms are also presented when failure information is unknown and component lifetime follows Weibull distribution. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method and further indicate that prediction results of residual life for systems deviate greatly by neglecting the failure information of the components.

Key words: residual life, failure information, exponential-Weibull distribution, r-out-of-n: G system

CLC Number:

TP114.3

Hongbin LIU, Qian ZHAO, Xiang JIA, Bo GUO. Residual life prediction of r-out-of-n: G systems with known failure information[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2022, 44(5): 1738-1746.

Figures/Tables 10

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Table 1

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References 30

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表决系统	工作时间τ	数值计算	仿真结果	误差率
无失效信息3/4(G) (α=2, β=3.4 η=50)	τ₁=25	24.532 5	24.849 0	0.012 9
	τ₂=30	19.608 0	19.512 5	0.004 9
	τ₃=35	14.947 3	15.286 4	0.022 7
	τ₄=40	10.911 2	10.932 6	0.002 0
失效1个部件的3/4(G) (α=2, β=3.4, η=50)	τ₁=25	18.483 9	18.766 1	0.015 3
	τ₂=30	14.360 8	14.588 0	0.015 8
	τ₃=35	10.921 0	11.019 3	0.009 0
	τ₄=40	8.232 8	8.294 8	0.007 5
无失效信息3/5(G) (α=3.5, β=1.8, η=150)	τ₁=80	124.495 4	124.506 9	0.000 1
	τ₂=85	119.497 9	119.815 4	0.002 7
	τ₃=90	114.503 5	114.211 4	0.002 6
	τ₄=95	109.515 1	110.073 0	0.005 1
失效2个部件的3/5(G) (α=3.5, β=1.8, η=150)	τ₁=80	76.006 7	76.498 8	0.006 5
	τ₂=85	71.940 5	71.565 5	0.005 2
	τ₃=90	68.056 5	67.373 7	0.010 1
	τ₄=95	64.363 7	64.986 8	0.009 7

表决系统	工作时间τ	80%置信区间数值计算	80%置信区间仿真结果
无失效信息3/4(G) (α=2, β=3.4, η=50)	τ₁=25	[15.161 9, 33.840 2]	[15.080 5, 33.668 0]
	τ₂=30	[10.292 8, 28.855 1]	[10.246 5, 29.369 2]
	τ₃=35	[5.992 9, 23.937 2]	[6.044 6, 23.743 7]
	τ₄=40	[3.041 8, 19.249 7]	[3.049 2, 19.405 4]
失效1个部件的3/4(G) (α=2, β=3.4, η=50)	τ₁=25	[7.474 5, 29.332 7]	[7.605 8, 29.408 8]
	τ₂=30	[4.389 2, 24.590 3]	[4.096 4, 24.1438]
	τ₃=35	[2.512 4, 20.168 3]	[2.253 0, 20.259 6]
	τ₄=40	[1.496 1, 16.243 7]	[1.598 3, 16.536 4]
无失效信息3/5(G) (α=3.5, β=1.8, η=150)	τ₁=80	[78.934 5, 172.565 5]	[78.992 1, 169.881 4]
	τ₂=85	[73.937 2, 167.566 7]	[71.101 5, 169.722 6]
	τ₃=90	[68.944 5, 162.567 9]	[66.894 4, 162.867 8]
	τ₄=95	[63.962 6, 157.570 6]	[63.667 7, 156.289 6]
失效2个部件的3/5(G) (α=3.5, β=1.8, η=150)	τ₁=80	[25.650 8, 129.608 9]	[27.537 8, 126.931 8]
	τ₂=85	[22.563 9, 124.948 9]	[22.984 2, 127.434 6]
	τ₃=90	[19.823 5, 120.375 8]	[19.915 7, 118.450 3
	τ₄=95	[17.421 7, 115.901 9]	[15.599 4, 116.775 8]

卫星代号	动量轮个数	发射年份	截尾年份	截尾时间/月
S1	5	2000年	2004年	51.95
S2	5	2002年	2005年	38.14
S3	5	2005年	2007年	27.29

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Residual life prediction of r-out-of-n: G systems with known failure information

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设备	失效时间	设备	失效时间	设备	失效时间	设备	失效时间	设备	失效时间
1	0.1	11	7	21	36	31	67	41	84
2	0.2	12	11	22	40	32	67	42	84
3	1	13	12	23	45	33	67	43	84
4	1	14	18	24	46	34	67	44	85
5	1	15	18	25	47	35	72	45	85
6	1	16	18	26	50	36	75	46	85
7	1	17	18	27	55	37	79	47	85
8	2	18	18	28	60	38	82	48	85
9	3	19	21	29	63	39	82	49	86
10	6	20	32	30	63	40	83	50	86