基于统计模型检测的DFT定量分析方法

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.02.30

Abstract

Abstract:

Dynamic fault tree (DFT) is an important means to analyze the safety of the system. There are three problems in solving the DFT based on Markov chain. (ⅰ) It can only analyze the system whose fault probability is exponentially distributed. (ⅱ) It is unable to resolve system common cause failure. (ⅲ) It is likely to cause the state space explosion. Therefore, this paper proposes a method of DFT quantitative analysis based on statistical model checking. Firstly, the DFT is decomposed into the dynamic logic gate, the basic component, the common cause failure relationship, and the logical relationships between gates and components. Secondly, the dynamic logic gate and the basic component are formalized based on the stochastic hybrid automaton. Thirdly, the automaton is reconstructed through the logical relationship to form a stochastic hybrid automaton network. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by analyzing an aircraft icing detection system with multiple failure probability distributions and the common cause failure relationship.

Key words: stochastic hybrid automaton, statistical model checking, stochastic system, dynamic fault tree (DFT), safety analysis

CLC Number:

TB114.3

Sen QIAO, Zhiqiu HUANG, Jinyong WANG, Weijian WAN. DFT quantitative analysis method based on statistical model checking[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(2): 480-488.

Figures/Tables 22

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基本事件	故障原因	故障概率分布	故障概率
X8	电源故障	均匀分布	1.0E-05
X9	ICE-IN失效	威布尔分布	(t; 0.448 2, 12 526)
X10	控制开关失效	威布尔分布	(t; 0.560 0, 4 003)
X11	SDAC1失效	指数分布	2.7E-04
X12	SDAC2失效	指数分布	2.7E-04
X13	ID硬线1失效	指数分布	1.21E-04
X14	ID硬线2失效	指数分布	1.21E-04
X15	ID左总线失效	指数分布	9.7E-04
X16	ID右总线失效	指数分布	9.7E-04
X17	FWC1失效	指数分布	3.36E-04
X18	FWC2失效	指数分布	3.36E-04

WMTL性质列表	验证结果
Pr[ < =10](<>PAND.Fail)	[9.129 65e-008, 2.009 13e-005]
Pr[ < =50](<>PAND.Fail)	[0.000 212 897, 0.000 412 897]
Pr[ < =100](<>PAND.Fail)	[0.001 543 73, 0.001 743 73]
Pr[ < =200](<>PAND.Fail)	[0.006 165 13, 0.006 365 13]

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DFT quantitative analysis method based on statistical model checking

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