Systems Engineering and Electronics ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 579-585.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2019.03.17

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Analysis on coupled conduction for complex materiel hazard based on general arbitrary distribution SPN

LI Chao, WANG Ying, ZHANG Yu, TAO Qian   

  1. Equipment Management & UAV Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi’an 710051, China
  • Online:2019-02-25 Published:2019-02-27

Abstract:

Aiming at the limitation of exponential distribution and complexity of solution in the traditional safety stochastic Petri nets (SPN) model, general arbitrary distribution SPN (GADSPN) for materiel hazard coupled conduction is proposed. Its transition distribution is generalized by entropy density function and moment generating function (MGF). The transition probability and interrelated hazard degree density function are got respectively by coupled degree formula, maximum entropy model, and the analysis performance of GADSPN is improved based on the character of equivalent MGF. The parameters of system equivalent hazard degree, hazard state sensitivity and hazard path deterioration are put forward,then the analysis process is constructed based on SPN state machine, reachability graph and T-invariant. Finally, an applied case of the battleplan “high velocity at low altitude” training subject and simulation based on Monte-Carlo & ExSpect are provided to illustrate the availability of GADSPN. The results show that the random influence relationship among the coupled conduction process of materiel hazard activities is reflected adequately by the GADSPN model, with good fitting accuracy and application.

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