Systems Engineering and Electronics ›› 2018, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 231-237.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2018.01.33

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Generalized grey Bayesian network model for reliability analysis of multi-state system

CAO Yingsai, LIU Sifeng, FANG Zhigeng, ZHANG Qin   

  1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
  • Online:2018-01-08 Published:2018-01-08

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Abstract:

Engineering systems and their components usually have multiple failure modes and various performance states. However, it is difficult to distinguish one state from another and to detect their logical relationship. A generalized grey Bayesian network for reliability analysis of multi-state system under uncertainty based on fuzzy sets and the grey system theory is proposed. In this model, different fault states are represented by fuzzy sets with interval grey numbers. Conditional probabilities of system and components are indicated by interval grey numbers, representing the complex fault logical relationships. Finally, reliability characteristic parameters are calculated with the Bayesian network inference algorithm and operation rules of grey numbers. The feasibility of the proposed model is demonstrated through a case study about a deployable emergency response device in a civil aircraft.

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