Abstract:

The core of risk management is to intervene in the occurrence of risk events, so it is necessary to understand the causality among the risk events. A risk modeling and analysis method based on casual Bayesian network is proposed, which comprises three steps: risk identifying based on operational process analysis, risk modeling by employing causal Bayesian network, and critical risk event identifying. The proposed method can facilitate identifying and assessing the causal relationship among risk events, and provide reliable evidences for making effective risk response plan. It is applied to an international procurement risk analysis in a company and shows a remarkable effect.