Abstract:

Bayesian method has been widely used in equipment parameter evaluation and decision making. However, existing studies focus on the structure of prior distribution and the engineering applications of the method, and there are few discourses on the analysis of consistency among prior distributions and the reliability of prior informations. The definition and testing methods for consistency analysis are given, the hypothesis testing model of prior reliability is built. Based on an analysis of consistency and prior reliability, a prior information fusion model is constructed. For an equipment reliability analysis example, the calculation process of consistency and prior reliability is exhibited.