高轨卫星通信星座PS-GERT效能评估模型

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.10.26

系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (10): 2356-2365.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.10.26

高轨卫星通信星座PS-GERT效能评估模型

方志耕¹(), 邵瑞瑞^1,*(), 王召¹(), 刘思峰¹(), 游伟青²(), 高素³()

1. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院, 江苏南京 211106
2. 江苏省国家密码管理局, 江苏南京 210008
3. 中国空间技术研究院通信卫星事业部, 北京 100094

收稿日期:2020-03-13 出版日期:2020-10-01 发布日期:2020-09-19
通讯作者: 邵瑞瑞 E-mail:zhigengfang@163.com;1439421039@qq.com;wongshao@126.com;sfliu@nuaa.edu.cn;894572560@qq.com;su_gao06@163.com
作者简介:方志耕(1962-),男,教授,博士研究生导师,博士,主要研究方向为可靠性工程、复杂装备研制管理。E-mail:zhigengfang@163.com|王召(1994-),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为复杂装备研制管理、质量管理。E-mail:wongshao@126.com|刘思峰(1955-),男,教授,博士研究生导师,博士,主要研究方向为灰色系统理论、系统方法分析与模型。E-mail: sfliu@nuaa.edu.cn|游伟青(1994-),男,硕士,主要研究方向为网络空间安全、密码理论。E-mail:894572560@qq.com|高素(1983-),男,高级工程师,博士,主要研究方向为卫星通信系统架构设计、基于模型的系统工程、效能分析。E-mail:su_gao06@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(71671091);南京航空航天大学基本业务费基础研究重大项目培育基金(NP2019104);南京航空航天大学基本业务费重大科技成果培育基金(NC2019003);国家发展与改革委员会高新技术补助([2017]1069)

PS-GERT effectiveness evaluation model of GEO satellite communication constellation

Zhigeng FANG¹(), Ruirui SHAO^1,*(), Zhao WANG¹(), Sifeng LIU¹(), Weiqing YOU²(), Su GAO³()

1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
2. National Cryptography Administration of Jiangsu Provinces, Nanjing 210008, China
3. Institute of Telecommunication Satellite, China Academy of Space Technology Corporation, Beijing 100094, China

Received:2020-03-13 Online:2020-10-01 Published:2020-09-19
Contact: Ruirui SHAO E-mail:zhigengfang@163.com;1439421039@qq.com;wongshao@126.com;sfliu@nuaa.edu.cn;894572560@qq.com;su_gao06@163.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

卫星通信星座的效能评估不仅可以表征星座的通信能力,还可为优化星座结构提供依据。在深入分析星座结构关系的基础上,剖析基于通信链路的高轨(geostationary earth orbit, GEO)卫星通信网络和联系统(plus system, PS),借助图示评审技术(graphical evaluation and review technique, GERT)提出基于特征函数与传递概率的等价传递函数算法。首先,在分析通信链路重要度内涵的基础上,得出通信链路效能及其重要度的算法公式,构建GEO卫星星座PS-GERT效能评估模型。然后,利用傅里叶逆变换推导星座效能的概率密度函数。最后,以某GEO卫星通信星座为例进行分析,验证了所构建模型的优越性,不仅能够全面客观地评估星座效能,同时也为星座结构的优化奠定了理论基础。

关键词: 通信链路, 链路效能, 图示评审技术, 重要度, 和联系统, 效能评估

Abstract:

The effectiveness evaluation of the satellite communication constellation can not only represent the communication capability of constellation, but also provide the basis for optimizing constellation structure. Based on the deep analysis of the constellation structure, the geostationary earth orbit (GEO) satellite communication network plus system (PS) based on the communication link is analyzed. With the help of the graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT), an equivalent transfer function algorithm based on the characteristic function and transfer probability is proposed. Firstly, on the basis of analyzing the connotation of communication link importance, the algorithm formula of communication link effectiveness and its importance is obtained, and the GEO satellite constellation PS-GERT effectiveness evaluation model is constructed. Then, the probability density function of constellation efficiency is derived by inverse Fourier transform. Finally, the analysis of a GEO satellite communication constellation is taken as an example to verify the superiority of the model constructed. It can not only comprehensively and objectively evaluate the effectiveness of the constellation, but also lay a theoretical foundation for the optimization of the constellation structure.

Key words: communication link, link effectiveness, graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT), importance, plus system (PS), effectiveness evaluation

中图分类号:

方志耕, 邵瑞瑞, 王召, 刘思峰, 游伟青, 高素. 高轨卫星通信星座PS-GERT效能评估模型[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2020, 42(10): 2356-2365.

Zhigeng FANG, Ruirui SHAO, Zhao WANG, Sifeng LIU, Weiqing YOU, Su GAO. PS-GERT effectiveness evaluation model of GEO satellite communication constellation[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(10): 2356-2365.

图/表 16

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

表1

表2

表3

表4

图7

图8

图9

图10

图11

表5

参考文献 31

1	JIANG Y , YANG S , ZHANG G X , et al. Coverage performances analysis on combined-GEO-IGSO satellite constellation[J]. Journal of Electronics, 2011, 28 (2): 228- 234.
2	WRIGHT D . Reaching out to remote and rural areas: mobile sate-llite services and the role of Inmarsat[J]. Telecommunications Policy, 1995, 19 (2): 105- 116. doi: 10.1016/0308-5961(94)00023-L
3	STAKER R. Knowledge based soft systems engineering for military system-of-systems[C]//Proc.of the Systems Engineering Test & Evaluation Conference, 2000: 213-221.
4	刘旭光, 孔德强, 李浩, 等. 一种卫星通信系统效能评估方法研究[J]. 航天电子对抗, 2012, 28 (5): 32- 35.
	LIU X G , KONG D Q , LI H , et al. An effectiveness evaluation method of satellite communication system[J]. Aerospace Electronic Countermeasure, 2012, 28 (5): 32- 35.
5	PIRZADEH H , SWINDLEHURST A L . Spectral effectiveness of mixed-ADC massive MIMO[J]. IEEE Trans.on Signal Processing, 2018, 66 (13): 3599- 3613. doi: 10.1109/TSP.2018.2833807
6	IREM O , BASAR O , SEZIC O , et al. Multi-expert performance evaluation of healthcare institutions using an integrated intuitioni-stic fuzzy AHP & DEA methodology[J]. Knowledge-Based Systems, 2017, 133, 90- 106. doi: 10.1016/j.knosys.2017.06.028
7	GU H , SONG B F . Study on effectiveness evaluation of weapon systems based on grey relational analysis and TOPSIS[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2009, 20 (1): 106- 111.
8	JIA N P , YANG Z W , YANG K W . Operational effectiveness evaluation of the swarming UAVs combat system based on a system dynamics model[J]. IEEE Access, 2019, 7, 25209- 25224. doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2898728
9	GAO F , SONG F , HUANG G Q , et al. Study on the effectiveness evaluation of the weapon equipment based on artificial neural network[J]. Advanced Materials Research, 2014, 926-930, 3262- 3265. doi: 10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.926-930.3262
10	SU C L , LAN C K , CHOU T C , et al. Performance evaluation of multiagent systems for navy shipboard power system restoration[J]. IEEE Trans.on Industry Applications, 2015, 51 (4): 2769- 2779. doi: 10.1109/TIA.2015.2394375
11	胡晓峰, 贺筱媛, 饶德虎, 等. 基于复杂网络的体系作战指挥与协同机理分析方法研究[J]. 指挥与控制学报, 2015, 1 (1): 5- 13.
	HU X F , HE X Y , RAO D H , et al. Research on mechanism of command and coordination for system of systems operation based on complex network theory[J]. Journal of Command and Control, 2015, 1 (1): 5- 13.
12	罗凯, 张明智, 吴曦. 基于作战环的空间信息时效网关键节点分析模型[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2016, 38 (7): 1572- 1576.
	LUO K , ZHANG M Z , WU X . Key nodes analysis model for space information temporal network based on operation loop[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2016, 38 (7): 1572- 1576.
13	XIONG B , LI B X , FAN R , et al. Modeling and simulation for effectiveness evaluation of dynamic discrete military supply chain networks[J]. Complexity, 2017, 6052037.
14	YANG H T, WANG X M, ZHAO H L. The modeling, simulation and effectiveness evaluation for communication networks of multi-layer satellites constellation[C]//Proc.of the International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Security, 2006.
15	ZHU Y , SHENG M , LI J D , et al. Performance analysis of intermittent satellite links with time-limited queuing model[J]. IEEE Communications Letters, 2018, 22 (11): 2282- 2285. doi: 10.1109/LCOMM.2018.2866570
16	林琪, 李智. 基于拓扑特征的卫星网络效能评估[J]. 中南大学学报(自然科学版), 2013, 44 (S2): 368- 371.
	LIN Q , LI Z . Performance evaluation of satellite-network based on topologic characteristics[J]. Journal of Central South University (Science and Technology), 2013, 44 (S2): 368- 371.
17	SHAO R R , FANG Z G , GAO S , et al. G-BDP-ADC model for effectiveness evaluation of low orbit satellite communication system in the context of poor information[J]. IEEE Access, 2019, 7, 157489- 157505. doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2949595
18	PAN X, HE C J, WEN T J. A SOS reliability evaluate approach based on GERT[C]//Proc.of the Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, 2015.
19	MANJU A , KANWAR S , POOJA M . GERT analysis of m-consecutive-k-out-of-n systems[J]. IEEE Trans.on Reliabi-lity, 2007, 56 (1): 26- 34. doi: 10.1109/TR.2006.890894
20	WU Y , PAN X , KANG R , et al. Multi-parameters uncertainty analysis of logistic support process based on GERT[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2014, 25 (6): 1011- 1019. doi: 10.1109/JSEE.2014.00116
21	BERNARD W T , LAURENCE J M , HAMMESFAHR R D . Global analysis of a multi-product, multi-line production system using q-gert modeling and simulation[J]. American Institute of Industrial Engineers Transactions, 1980, 12 (2): 145- 155.
22	陶良彦, 刘思峰, 方志耕, 等. GERT网络的矩阵式表达及求解模型[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2017, 39 (6): 1292- 1297.
	TAO L Y , LIU S F , FANG Z G , et al. Matrix representation model and its solution of GERT network[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2017, 39 (6): 1292- 1297.
23	陶良彦, 刘思峰, 方志耕, 等. 以特征函数为传递参数的CF-GERT及其矩阵法求解[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2018, 38 (2): 509- 521.
	TAO L Y , LIU S F , FANG Z G , et al. CF-GERT model conveying characteristic function and its matrix solution[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2018, 38 (2): 509- 521.
24	刘红旗, 方志耕, 陶良彦. 复杂装备研制项目进度规划GERT网络"反问题"模型[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2015, 37 (12): 2758- 2763.
	LIU H Q , FANG Z G , TAO L Y . Complex equipmentdevelopment project planning GERT network"inverse problem"model[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2015, 37 (12): 2758- 2763.
25	刘思峰, 俞斌, 方志耕, 等. 灰色价值流动G-G-GERT网络模型及其应用研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2009, 17 (S): 28- 33.
	LIU S F , YU B , FANG Z G , et al. Study on a new G-GERT network model and its application based on value flow process[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2009, 17 (S): 28- 33.
26	USHAKOV N G . Selected topics in characteristic functions[M]. New York: Walter de Cruyter, 1999.
27	何玉钧, 周生平, 刘毅. 基于ADC法的电力通信网效能评估模型[J]. 华北电力大学学报:自然科学版, 2017, 44 (1): 76- 81.
	HE Y J , ZHOU S P , LIU Y . Effectiveness evaluation model of electric power communication network based on ADC method[J]. Journal of North China Electric Power University (Natural Science Edition), 2017, 44 (1): 76- 81.
28	FANG F , OOSTERLEE K . A novel pricing method for European options based on Fourier-cosine series expansions[J]. SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 2008, 31 (2): 826- 848.
29	CHANDRASEKHAR M G , VENUGOPAL D , SEBASTIAN M , et al. One way multimedia broadcasting as a tool for education and development in developing nations[J]. Acta Astronautica, 2000, 47 (2/9): 657- 664.
30	唐鑫, 杨建军, 张磊. 改进信息熵的新装备体系作战效能评估方法研究[J]. 舰船电子工程, 2016, 36 (7): 128- 133.
	TANG X , YANG J J , ZHANG L . Evalution approach for operation effectiveness of new equipment by improved information entropy[J]. Ship Electronic Engineering, 2016, 36 (7): 128- 133.
31	孙元顺.通信网络效能评估理论模型与仿真算法研究[D].北京:北京邮电大学, 2018.
	SUN Y S. Research on theoretical model and simulation algorithm of communication network efficiency evaluation[D]. Beijing: Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, 2018.

通信活动(j，k)	活动概率P_jk	执行通信实体j	实体j通信活动效能分布	特征函数E_jk	传递函数W_jk
(US, GEO₁)	0.3	US	N(0.88, 0.05)	exp(0.88it-0.025t²)	0.3exp(0.88it-0.025t²)
(US, GEO₂)	0.4	US	N(0.83, 0.06)	exp(0.83it-0.03t²)	0.4exp(0.83it-0.03t²)
(US, GEO₃)	0.3	US	N(0.79, 0.01)	exp(0.79it-0.005t²)	0.3exp(0.79it-0.005t²)
(GEO₁, GEO₂)	0.2	GEO₁	N(0.63, 0.07)	exp(0.63it-0.035t²)	0.2exp(0.63it-0.035t²)
(GEO₂, GEO₁)	0.3	GEO₂	N(0.78, 0.04)	exp(0.78it-0.02t²)	0.3exp(0.78it-0.02t²)
(GEO₂, GEO₃)	0.4	GEO₂	N(0.79, 0.08)	exp(0.79it-0.04t²)	0.4exp(0.79it-0.04t²)
(GEO₃, GEO₂)	0.2	GEO₃	N(0.82, 0.02)	exp(0.82it-0.01t²)	0.2exp(0.82it-0.01t²)
(GEO₁, GEO₃)	0.3	GEO₁	N(0.8, 0.04)	exp(0.8it-0.02t²)	0.3exp(0.8it-0.02t²)
(GEO₃, GEO₁)	0.4	GEO₃	N(0.76, 0.05)	exp(0.76it-0.025t²)	0.4exp(0.76it-0.025t²)
(GEO₁, UR)	0.5	GEO₁	N(0.59, 0.03)	exp(0.59it-0.015t²)	0.5exp(0.59it-0.015t²)
(GEO₂, UR)	0.3	GEO₂	N(0.75, 0.07)	exp(0.75it-0.035t²)	0.3exp(0.75it-0.035t²)
(GEO₃, UR)	0.4	GEO₃	N(0.7, 0.02)	exp(0.7it-0.01t²)	0.4exp(0.7it-0.01t²)

编号	通信链路	等价传递函数W_l
1	US-GEO₁-UR	0.15exp(1.47it-0.04t²)
2	US-GEO₂-UR	0.12exp(1.58it-0.065t²)
3	US-GEO₃-UR	0.12exp(1.49it-0.015t²)
4	US-GEO₁-GEO₂-UR	0.018exp(2.26it-0.095t²)
5	US-GEO₂-GEO₁-UR	0.06exp(2.2it-0.065t²)
6	US-GEO₁-GEO₃-UR	0.036exp(2.38it-0.055t²)
7	US-GEO₃-GEO₁-UR	0.06exp(2.14it-0.045t²)
8	US-GEO₂-GEO₃-UR	0.064exp(2.32it-0.08t²)
9	US-GEO₃-GEO₂-UR	0.018exp(2.36it-0.05t²)

编号	通信链路	链路效能E_l
1	US-GEO₁-UR	1.47
2	US-GEO₂-UR	1.58
3	US-GEO₃-UR	1.49
4	US-GEO₁-GEO₂-UR	2.26
5	US-GEO₂-GEO₁-UR	2.2
6	US-GEO₁-GEO₃-UR	2.38
7	US-GEO₃-GEO₁-UR	2.14
8	US-GEO₂-GEO₃-UR	2.32
9	US-GEO₃-GEO₂-UR	2.36

编号	通信链路	重要度imp (l)/%
1	US-GEO₁-UR	4.70
2	US-GEO₂-UR	3.64
3	US-GEO₃-UR	6.00
4	US-GEO₁-GEO₂-UR	25.16
5	US-GEO₂-GEO₁-UR	6.14
6	US-GEO₁-GEO₃-UR	14.36
7	US-GEO₃-GEO₁-UR	4.80
8	US-GEO₂-GEO₃-UR	7.65
9	US-GEO₃-GEO₂-UR	27.55

方法	效能计算	效能值	概率密度函数	各部分效能	权重求解
PS-GERT解析法	客观	2.192	有,且有函数表达式	有(各链路)	客观
改进信息熵^[30]	客观+主观	2.141	无	有(各节点)	主观
熵值法+云重心理论^[31]	客观+主观	2.115	无	无	客观

高轨卫星通信星座PS-GERT效能评估模型

PS-GERT effectiveness evaluation model of GEO satellite communication constellation

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 16

参考文献 31

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	方志耕, 夏悦馨, 张靖如, 熊仪, 陈静邑. 基于Agent的体系过程A-GERT网络“刺激-反应”学习模型[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(8): 2540-2553.
[2]	浣顺启, 方哲梅, 王剑波. 基于功能依赖网的体系效能评估方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(7): 2191-2200.
[3]	蔺向阳, 邢清华, 刘付显. 针对要点防空模型的作战兵力优化研究[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(3): 921-928.
[4]	邱禄芸, 方志耕, 陶良彦, 陶秋澄. 网络体系效能评估改进FDNA模型[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2022, 44(12): 3728-3737.
[5]	潘星, 张振宇, 张艳梅, 王冉冉. 基于Sobol敏感性分析的装备体系保障效能评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43(2): 390-398.
[6]	高昂, 郭齐胜, 董志明, 杨绍卿. 基于EAS+MADRL的多无人车体系效能评估方法研究[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43(12): 3643-3651.
[7]	杨圩生, 王钰, 杨洋, 唐亮. 基于作战环的不同节点攻击策略下的作战网络效能评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43(11): 3220-3228.
[8]	韩驰, 熊伟. 基于改进灰狼算法优化SVR的航天侦察装备效能评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43(10): 2902-2910.
[9]	王成, 许建新, 李连玉, 王红军, 张振明. 系统可靠度约束下的备件配置优化[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2021, 43(1): 279-284.
[10]	李彪, 王立文, 邢志伟, 罗谦. 过站航班地面保障流程效能评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2020, 42(7): 1543-1549.
[11]	汪民乐. 导弹力量作战行动规划综述[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2020, 42(12): 2825-2832.
[12]	王双川, 贾希胜, 胡起伟, 王强. 基于正态灰云模型的装备维修保障系统效能评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2019, 41(7): 1576-1582.
[13]	张壮, 李琳琳, 魏振华, 余宏峰. 基于变权投影灰靶的指控系统动态效能评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2019, 41(4): 801-809.
[14]	王双川, 胡起伟, 李锋, 王强, 冉悄然, 马云飞. 装备维修保障效能评估研究综述[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2019, 41(10): 2271-2278.
[15]	罗承昆, 陈云翔, 王莉莉, 王泽洲, 常政. 基于作战环和改进信息熵的体系效能评估方法[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2019, 41(1): 73-80.