考虑随机共因失效的战时装备群任务成功概率仿真评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.11.15

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

装备群任务成功概率评估是联合作战条件下复杂装备体系任务成功概率评估的基础。针对战时装备群任务成功概率评估问题,考虑任务时间的随机性和任务过程中敌方火力打击这一典型随机共因失效事件,采用“直接法”和“间接法”两种方法对装备群任务成功概率进行仿真评估,通过算例对两种评估方法进行了分析比较。研究结果表明,采用“直接法”得到的评估结果更加准确,但是仿真效率较低;在允许误差范围内,当随机共因失效事件参数和任务时间参数在一定范围内取值时,采用“间接法”评估装备群任务成功概率更佳。

关键词: 随机共因失效, 装备群, 任务成功概率, 仿真, 装备维修保障

Abstract:

Mission completion success probability evaluation of an equipment group is the basis of mission success probability evaluation of complex equipment system of systems under the condition of joint operation. To solve the problem of mission success probability evaluation of an equipment group during wartime, considering the randomness of mission time and the typical random common cause failure (RCCF) event of enemy fire attack in the mission, "direct" and "indirect" methods are used to evaluate the mission completion success probability of an equipment group, and the two evaluation methods are analyzed and compared through examples. The research results show that the "direct" method brings about more accurate results, but its simulation efficiency is lower; and within an allowable error range, when the parameters of the RCCF event and mission time are within a certain range, the "indirect" method performs better in the evaluation.

Key words: random common cause failure (RCCF), equipment group, mission completion success probability, simulation, equipment maintenance support

中图分类号:

王双川, 贾希胜, 胡起伟, 曹文斌, 郭驰名. 考虑随机共因失效的战时装备群任务成功概率仿真评估[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2020, 42(11): 2529-2537.

Shuangchuan WANG, Xisheng JIA, Qiwei HU, Wenbin CAO, Chiming GUO. Simulation evaluation of mission completion success probability of equipment group during wartime considering random common cause failure[J]. Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2020, 42(11): 2529-2537.

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部件编号	部件失效概率	部件换件维修时间参数
1	0.08	μ=－1.74, σ=1.04
2	0.12	μ=－1.61, σ=0.78
3	0.05	μ=－1.90, σ=0.97
4	0.10	μ=－1.35, σ=0.69
5	0.12	μ=－1.62, σ=1.23
6	0.06	μ=－1.75, σ=0.85
7	0.14	μ=－2.03, σ=1.42

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