系统工程与电子技术 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 230-237.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2020.01.31

• 可靠性 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于证据GO法的复杂多态系统动态可靠性分析

陈宇奇1(), 徐廷学1(), 李志强2(), 李海君3()   

  1. 1. 海军航空大学, 山东 烟台 264001
    2. 中国人民解放军 91388部队, 广东 湛江 524024
    3. 中国人民解放军 91115部队, 浙江 舟山 316041
  • 收稿日期:2019-06-13 出版日期:2020-01-01 发布日期:2019-12-23
  • 作者简介:陈宇奇(1992-),男,博士研究生,主要研究方向为复杂系统可靠性分析与评估。E-mail:475809936@qq.com|徐廷学(1962-),男,教授,博士,主要研究方向为装备综合保障理论与运用。E-mail:xtx-yt@163.com|李志强(1988-),男,工程师,博士,主要研究方向为可靠性建模与维修决策优化、复杂系统试验鉴定与定型。E-mail:18663813941@163.com|李海君(1978-),男,工程师,博士,主要研究方向为控制科学与工程、可靠性。E-mail:16529531@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(51605487)

Dynamic reliability analysis of complex multi-state system based on evidence GO method

Yuqi CHEN1(), Tingxue XU1(), Zhiqiang LI2(), Haijun LI3()   

  1. 1. Navy Aeronautical University, Yantai 264001, China
    2. Unit 91388 of the PLA, Zhanjiang 524024, China
    3. Unit 91115 of the PLA, Zhoushan 316041, China
  • Received:2019-06-13 Online:2020-01-01 Published:2019-12-23
  • Supported by:
    国家自然科学基金(51605487)

摘要:

为了准确把握复杂多态系统及其部件可靠性指标的演变规律,需要对其进行动态可靠性分析。针对复杂多态系统退化参数的认知不确定性问题,提出一种用于动态可靠性分析的证据GO算法,以GO法原理为分析基础,结合证据理论构建一种考虑认知不确定性的多态GO法操作符,完成对复杂多态系统的不确定量化,结合马尔可夫模型对复杂多态系统进行可靠性建模,从而有效地分析认知不确定性给系统可靠度的影响,并用算例验证方法的可行性。

关键词: 复杂多态系统, GO法, 认知不确定性, 证据理论, 动态可靠性分析

Abstract:

In order to accurately grasp the evolution law of reliability index of the complex multi-state system and its components, it is necessary to carry out dynamic reliability analysis. A dynamic reliability analysis method for complex multi-state system considering epistemic uncertainty is proposed to deal with the epistemic uncertainty caused by small samples, inadequate failure data which are difficult in obtaining and uncertain failure or degradation mechanism. Based on the GO method, this paper constructs a multi-state GO operator considering epistemic uncertainty combining evidence theory to quantify the uncertainty of the complex multi-state system, and models the reliability of the complex multi-state system combining the Markov model. The feasibility of the method is verified by an example.

Key words: complex multi-state system, GO method, epistemic uncertainty, evidence theory, dynamic reliability analysis

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